![]() Second, why does uncertainty vary during business cycles? Third, do fluctuations in uncertainty affect behavior? Fourth, has higher uncertainty worsened the Great Recession and slowed the recovery? Much of this discussion is based on research on uncertainty from the last five years, reflecting the recent growth of the literature. Uncertainty also varies heavily across countries-developing countries appear to have about one-third more macro uncertainty than developed countries. This allows us to investigate the evolution of uncertainty and its economic impact from a historical perspective. First, what are some facts and patterns about economic uncertainty? Both macro and micro uncertainty appear to rise sharply in recessions and fall in booms. In this essay, I address four questions about uncertainty. It is also a broad concept, including uncertainty over the path of macro phenomena like GDP growth, micro phenomena like the growth rate of firms, and noneconomic events like war and climate change. few studies that simultaneously estimate uncertainty and its macroeco. ![]() macro uncertainty to its own innovation from an autoregression has a half life of 53. means of a global-local shrinkage prior that mimics certain features of the well. It reflects uncertainty in the minds of consumers, managers, and policymakers about possible futures. macroeconomic uncertainty, defined as the common volatility in the.
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